（雅思課外精讀）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人Turkeysandblockbusters勝者為王敗者為寇

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Turkeys and blockbusters

勝者為王，敗者為寇

Why and how the paths of developing economies are set to diverge

發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體勢將分流的原因和方式

WISE investors know that winning bets shine more brightly if they are not overshadowed by big loss-making trades. The way in which capital flowed to and from emerging markets in recent years meant that such discriminationwent out of the window. Now, however, change is coming.

精明的投資者知道，如果不被大筆虧損的交易蒙上陰云，那些贏得的賭注會更加熠熠生輝。近年來新興市場資本流入和流出的方式表明沒人再把這種鑒別力當(dāng)回事了。然而，如今變化即將來臨。

Two influences in particular are behind this. The first is the retreat by Americas Federal Reserve from ultra-loose monetary policy. Cheap credit gave good and bad economies alike a boost; as its effect fades, capital allocation will become more disciplined. Thepeculiar traits of each emerging market, from macroeconomic management to productivity growth, will have a greater say in how its economy performs as well as how investors view it. The second shift is in Americas trade policy, which is taking a worrying turn towards economic nationalisma course whose effects on emerging economies will differ depending on their location and trade patterns. As a result, the reasons for success or failure among emerging markets may be quite different from the recent past.

這背后有兩大因素的影響尤為突出。第一是美聯(lián)儲退出超寬松貨幣政策。廉價信貨對好的和壞的經(jīng)濟(jì)體有相似的促進(jìn)作用，隨著這一效應(yīng)逐漸消失，資本配置將變得更加嚴(yán)格。每個新興市場的獨特特征，從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理到生產(chǎn)力增長，都將對其經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)以及投資者對它的態(tài)度產(chǎn)生更大的影響。第二個因素是美國的貿(mào)易政策，它正轉(zhuǎn)向經(jīng)濟(jì)民族主義，令人擔(dān)憂。這種轉(zhuǎn)變對新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的影響將因其地理位置和貿(mào)易模式的差異而有所不同。因此，新興市場成功或失敗的原因可能會與不久以前大不相同。

Begin with macroeconomic management, in which there is already a growing divergence. Turkey is at one end of the spectrum. Despite its fiscal prudence, it has other ills that have long made the cautious wary of emerging markets, including a big trade deficit financed by hot money and lots of foreign-currency debt. It also suffers high inflation. The central bank has been slow to tackle this and seems cowed by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president, who insists that high interest rates cause inflation.

先來看宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理。在這方面，新興市場間的差異已經(jīng)越來越大。土耳其即代表著一個極端。盡管土耳其財政政策穩(wěn)健，但還是存在著其他長期以來讓謹(jǐn)慎的投資者對新興市場保持警惕的弊病，包括依靠熱錢和大量外匯債務(wù)來填補的巨額貿(mào)易赤字。土耳其還飽受高通脹之苦，其央行在對付這一問題上一直動作緩慢，似乎畏懼堅持認(rèn)為高利率會導(dǎo)致通脹的總統(tǒng)埃爾多安。

Contrast this with progress elsewhere. Little more than a year ago, South Africa was bracketed with Turkey as an emerging market to avoid. Its president, Jacob Zuma, attempted to subvert the Treasury, a bastion of orthodoxy. He failed. South Africas central bank has also stuck to its inflationmandate in the face of a slowing economy and weaker rand. Despite a brutal recession, Brazils central bank has also concentrated on pulling inflation back towards its goal of 4.5%; the country is getting to grips with the fiscal laxity which is the source of much of its economic misery. With interest rates at 13%, there is ample room to ease monetary policy. Central banks in Russia and India have also run fairly tight monetary policies. As inflation falls further, they will have scope to cut interest rates.

再將土耳其的情況與其他國家的進(jìn)展做一下對比。僅僅一年多前，南非和土耳其一樣，被劃為投資者應(yīng)當(dāng)繞道的新興市場。南非總統(tǒng)祖馬（Jacob Zuma)企圖顛覆財政部這一正統(tǒng)派的堡壘，但失敗了。南非的央行在經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩和蘭特疲弱的情況下，仍然堅持抑制通脹。巴西盡管經(jīng)歷了嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，其央行同樣集中力量希望將通脹水平拉回到 4.5/。的目標(biāo)；巴西正在認(rèn)真解決財政政策過于寬松的問題，這是其大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)問題的根源。巴西目前的利率為 13%，有足夠的空間放寬貨幣政策。俄羅斯和印度的央行也一直執(zhí)行著相當(dāng)緊縮的貨幣政策。隨著通脹進(jìn)一步下降，它們將迎來降息的空間。

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